Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
